Social Dictatorships: The Political Economy of the Welfare State in the Middle East and North Africa (Oxford University Press, 2020)
Why have social spending levels and social policy trajectories writ large diverged so drastically across labour-abundant MENA regimes? And how can we explain the marked persistence of spending levels after divergence? Using historical institutionalism and a mix of qualitative and quantitative methods, the book manuscript develop an explanation of social spending in authoritarian regimes that emphasises the importance of early elite conflict and their attempt to form a durable support coalition under the constraints imposed by external threats and scarce resources. The study also follows a multi-level approach in that the viability of the argument is tested comparatively at the cross-country level and process-traced at the micro-level in two in-depth case studies of Tunisia and Egypt. Part of the research project was the compilation of an original dataset of welfare spending that spans the period from 1950 until present.
Peer-reviewed journal articles
"War Makes the Regime: Regional Rebellions and Political Militarization Worldwide" (with S. Hertog and D. Slater), British Journal of Political Science, 2019.
"How to Keep Officers in the Barracks? Causes, Agents, and Types of Military Coups" (with H. Albrecht), International Studies Quarterly, 62:2, June 2018.
"Linking the Macro to the Micro: A Multidimensional Approach to Educational Inequalities in Four European Countries" (with E. Bukodi), European Societies, 20:1, January 2018.
"Constraints, Competition, and Competitiveness: Explaining the Non-linear Effect of Democratization on Political Budget Cycles" (with H. Lynge-Mangueira), European Political Science Review, 9:4, November 2017.
"Electoral Confidence and Political Budget Cycles in Non-OECD Countries" (with H. Lynge-Mangueira), Studies in Comparative International Development, 52:1, March 2017.
"The Party of Authenticity and Modernity (PAM): trajectory of a political deux ex machina", Journal of North African Studies, 17:1, 2012.
"The Politics of Trade Protection: Evidence from an EU-Mandated Tariff Liberalization in Morocco" (with C. Ruchteschler and A. Malik), ERF Working Paper, 1352.
"Squaring the circle: 'Cheap social policies' in the Middle East", POMEPS Studies, 31, The Project on Middle East Political Science, October 2018.
Washington Post Monkey Cage blog on volume
"The Political Economy of Energy Subsidies in Egypt and Tunisia: The Untold Story", OIES Paper, SP 38, Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, August 2017.
"The Political Economy of Energy Subsidies in Egypt and Tunisia: The Untold Story", Oxford Energy Forum, 108, Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, March 2017.
"The Politics of Partial Liberalization: Cronyism and Non-Tariff Protection in Mubarak's Egypt" (with A. Malik), CSAE Working Paper, WPS/2016-27.
"Parlamentswahlen in Marokko: Ende oder Anfang eines "marokkanischen Frühlings"?", GIGA Focus Nahost, GIGA German Institute of Global And Area Studies.
"Welfare States in the Middle East", in Cammett, M. and Jones, P. (eds.) Oxford Handbook of Politics in Muslim Societies, Oxford: Oxford University Press. Under contract.
"The politics of trade protection in North Africa" (with A. Malik), in Diwan, I., Atiyas, I. and Malik, A. (eds.) Crony Capitalism in the Middle East, Oxford: Oxford University Press. 2019.
"Social Policies in the Middle East and North Africa", in Durlauf, S. and Blume, L. (eds.) The New Palgrave Dictionary of Economics, Palgrave: Basingstoke. 2017.
"Der Kontinuität verschrieben? Islamisten und der Arabische Frühling in Marokko", (with D. Engelcke) in Faath, S. (ed.) Islamisten nach dem Arabischen Frühling, Edition Wuqûf: Hamburg. 2012.